Is ADHD Overdiagnosed?

The overdiagnosis narrative

You may have seen headlines suggesting that ADHD is being overdiagnosed - that rising diagnosis rates reflect a trend rather than a genuine condition. This narrative has gained traction in the media and in political debate, particularly around welfare reform.

It is important to examine the evidence carefully. The question is not whether diagnosis rates have risen - they have. The question is whether those rising rates reflect overdiagnosis, or whether they reflect a condition that was previously under-recognised finally being identified.

What the evidence actually shows

Prevalence versus diagnosis rates

The best available research estimates that ADHD affects approximately 5% of children and 2-3% of adults worldwide.^{1 3} In the UK, when families are asked whether their child has received an ADHD diagnosis, the rate is around 1.2%. From primary care databases, the recorded rate is only 0.51%.²

For adults, the gap is even larger. The ADHD Taskforce found that only 15% of adults with ADHD currently receive medication, despite evidence that 70-90% of people benefit from treatment.¹ An estimated 80% of people with ADHD in the UK remain undiagnosed and untreated.⁴

Who is being missed?

The evidence consistently shows that certain groups are particularly under-recognised:

• Women and girls are significantly less likely to receive a diagnosis, particularly in childhood. A national study using Welsh healthcare records found a male-to-female diagnostic ratio of 3.9:1 overall, and 4.8:1 for those diagnosed before age 12.5
• People from lower-income backgrounds, minority ethnic groups, and care-experienced individuals face additional barriers to diagnosis.1
• People in the criminal justice system have extremely high rates of unrecognised ADHD, with limited access to assessment or support.1

These patterns are consistent with underdiagnosis, not overdiagnosis.

Why the myth persists

Rising diagnosis rates

Diagnosis rates have risen significantly in recent years. This is often cited as evidence of overdiagnosis. But rising rates can also reflect improved awareness, better training among clinicians, and wider understanding of how ADHD presents - particularly in women, adults, and people with the inattentive presentation.

Media and political framing

The overdiagnosis narrative has been amplified by political debate, particularly around welfare eligibility and benefit costs. In late 2025, the UK Health Secretary announced a review into whether mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions are being overdiagnosed - a move that many clinicians and researchers criticised as misguided.⁵

Concerns about diagnostic quality

Some researchers have raised legitimate concerns about the quality of some diagnostic assessments, particularly those conducted rapidly or without full developmental histories.⁷ These concerns are about diagnostic rigour, not about whether ADHD itself is real or common. Improving the quality of assessment is important - but it is a separate issue from the question of whether too many people are being diagnosed.

The pharmaceutical industry argument

A persistent argument is that rising ADHD diagnoses are driven by pharmaceutical marketing. While the pharmaceutical industry does have a financial interest in diagnosis rates, this does not explain the pattern seen in the UK. NHS prescribing data, the ADHD Taskforce report, and large-scale epidemiological studies all point to under-treatment, not over-treatment.¹

What the Taskforce concluded

The Independent ADHD Taskforce, commissioned by NHS England and led by Professor Anita Thapar, published its findings in 2025. The report’s conclusions are clear:¹

• ADHD is a common, well-evidenced neurodevelopmental condition
• It is significantly underdiagnosed and undertreated across England
• When unsupported, ADHD costs the UK approximately 17 billion pounds per year through impacts on education, employment, health, and the criminal justice system
• Women and girls, people from deprived backgrounds, and minority groups face the greatest barriers to diagnosis
• NHS waiting times for ADHD assessment have reached 10-15 years in some areas, with over 668,000 people on open referral lists as of June 2025
• Services need to be “needs-led, not diagnosis-dependent” - meaning support should not have to wait for a formal diagnosis

The real harm of the overdiagnosis narrative

When the overdiagnosis myth goes unchallenged, the consequences are serious:

• People who need support delay seeking it, fearing they will not be believed
• GPs who are unsure about ADHD may be less willing to refer for assessment
• Funding for ADHD services may be deprioritised on the assumption that demand is inflated
• Public understanding of ADHD is undermined, reinforcing stigma
• Political decisions about welfare eligibility may be based on a false premise

As the BJGP editorial put it: “It is time to put aside the divisive discussions surrounding ‘overdiagnosis’ and recognise the fact that those seeking diagnosis are in need of support.”⁵

Getting support

If you think you may have ADHD

• Speak to your GP about a referral for assessment
• In England, you have the legal Right to Choose your assessment provider
• Use our Local Services directory to find ADHD services near you

neurobetter resources

• ADHD - understanding ADHD as a whole
• Getting a diagnosis - practical guide to the assessment process
• Gender differences in ADHD - why women and girls are underdiagnosed
• Screening tools - self-report tools that can help you prepare
• Our online community - connect with others who understand
• Ask a Counsellor - private, confidential guidance